参考文献
第1章 重塑未来市场
1. the online marketplace’s twentieth-anniversary event: Marco della Cava, “eBay Turns Twenty with Sales Plan Aimed at Rivals Like Amazon,”USA Today, September 16, 2015, http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2015/09/16/eBay-turns-20-sales-plan-aimed-rivals-likeamazon/72317234.
2. traded on eBay’s platform: “eBay: Twenty Years of Trading,”Economist, September 3,2015, http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/09/daily-chart-1.
3. active eBay users: Leena Ro, “For eBay, a New Chapter Begins,”Fortune, July 19, 2015,http://fortune.com/2015/07/19/eBay-independence.
4. “a general rallying the troops”: Della Cava,“eBay Turns Twenty.”
5. “due for a reset”: Ibid.
6. eBay’s recent troubles: Nicole Perlroth, “eBay Urges New Passwords After Breach,” New York Times, May 21, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/22/technology/eBay-reportsattack-on-its-computer-network.html?_r=0.
7. sellers of Yahoo’s shares: Matt Levine, “How Can Yahoo Be Worth Less Than Zero?”Bloomberg, April 17, 2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2014-04-17/how-canyahoo-be-worth-less-than-zer; see generally, Richard H. Thaler, Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioural Economics (London: Allen Lane, 2015), 244–253.
8. “electronic markets”: Thomas W. Malone, Joanne Yates, and Robert I. Benjamin, “Electronic Markets and Electronic Hierarchies,”Communications of the ACM, June 1987, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/220425850.
9. a staggering 9,300 percent upturn: “The Zettabyte Era: Trends and Analysis,” Cisco White Paper No. 1465272001812119, June 7, 2017, http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/vni-hyperconnectivity-wp.html.
第2章 人类交流与合作
10. each new foursome got into place: Efren Garcia,“Historic Record in Catalonia’s Human Tower Building,” Ara: Explaining Catalonia, November 23, 2015, http://www.ara.cat/en/Historicrecord-Catalonias-tower-building_0_1473452720.htm; see also the video of the tower being built on YouTube, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTP-Xp7v6m0.
11. a girl had fallen to her death: “Una niña doce años muere al caerse de un ‘castell’ de nueve pisos en Mataró,” Libertad Digital, August 4, 2006, http://www.libertaddigital.com/sociedad/una-nina-de-12-anos-muere-al-caerse-de-un-castell-de-nueve-pisos-enmataro-1276285054.
set a new world record: Stefania Rousselle,“Building Human Pyramids for Catalonia” (video“Climbing for Catalonian Pride”), New York Times, November 7, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000003222118/catalonians-climb-high-to-exhibit-pride.html.
12. “no limits but the sky”: Here it seems exactly right — but also some - what wrong — to quote Castilian Miguel de Cervantes’s Don Quixote, pt. 3, chap. 3.
13. complexity of the structure is the principal concern: A castell with an aguila, or needle — a tower of single individuals standing one atop the other that is revealed as the main castle is deconstructed — is the most complex and coveted form.
14. has come to mean “working together”: UNESCO,“Human Tow-ers,” YouTube video,November 5, 2010, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iSHfrmGdyo.
15. became possible to protect a dependent child: Sarah Blaffer Hrdy, Mothers and Others: The Evolutionary Origins of Mutual Understanding(Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2009).
16. opened the floodgates to globalization: Lloyd G. Reynolds, “Inter-Country Diffusion of Economic Growth, 1870–1914,” in Mark Gersovitz, Carlos F. Diaz-Alejandro, Gustav Ranis,and Mark R. Rosenzweig, eds., The Theory and Experience of Economic Devel- opment:Essays in Honor of Sir W. Arthur Lewis (New York: Rout- ledge, 2012), 319.
17. in exchange for a freshly transcribed copy: Mark Kurlansky, Paper: Paging Through History(New York: W. W. Norton, 2016), 13.
18. revolutionary eighteenth century Encyclopédie: Ibid., 231. See also: Frank A. Kafker and Serena Kafker, The Encyclopedists as Individuals: A Biographical Dictionary of the Authors of the Encyclopédie (Oxford: Voltaire Foundation, 1988), http://encyclopedie.uchicago.edu.
19. 40 million articles in nearly three hundred languages: These numbers are from Wikipedia’s home page as of December 2016.
20. system to classify the planet’s life forms: Wilfrid Blunt, Linnaeus: The Compleat Naturalist(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2002), 185–193.
21. led to the theory of evolution: Roland Moberg,“The Development of Protoecology in Sweden,”Linné on Line, University of Uppsala, 2008, http://www.linnaeus.uu.se/online/eco/utveckling.html.
The moon landing required: “Apollo 11 Mission Report,” NASA, n.d., http://www.hq.nasa.gov/alsj/a11/A11_PAOMissionReport.html.
22. 10,000 scientists from over one hundred countries: Roger High-field, “LHC: Scientists Jockey for Position in Race to Find the Higgs Particle,” Telegraph, September 10, 2008,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/large-hadron-collider/3351478/LHC-Scientistsjockey-for-position-in-race-to-find-the-Higgs-particle.html.
23. “looks with grace upon each link”: Quoted in Moberg,“The Development of Protoecology in Sweden.”
24. “Coordination ranges from tyrannical to democratic”: Charles E. Lindblom, The Market System: What It Is, How It Works, and What to Make of It (New Haven: Yale University Press,2002), 20.
25. the word economics — the Greek oikonomia: Dotan Leshem, “Retrospectives: What Did the Ancient Greeks Mean by Oikono- mia?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 30, no. 1 (Winter 2016), 225–238, https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.225.
26. In a market, coordination is decentralized: Of course, not every market is fully decentralized in practice. For instance, if there’s only one buyer and many sellers, then the decision to buy is done by a single participant. These markets are often characterized as suffering from concentration. But sometimes markets are deliberately designed to have a central decisionmaking entity; the market to assign doctors to residency programs in the United States is a prime example. As we shall see, often these special markets cannot utilize price to convey information and centralize decision-making.
27. not just on the level of a household: Lindblom, The Market System,5.
28. a factor of almost 2,000 since the 1500s: There is significant debate about the accuracy of historical figures, often estimations based on many assumptions. We also equated market volume with the gross global product at purchasing-power parity–that, too, is quite an approximation. See J. Bradford DeLong, “Estimating World GDP, One Million B.C.–Present,” http://holtz.org/Library/Social%20Science/Economics/Estimating%20World%20GDP%20by%20DeLong/Estimating%20World%20GDP.ht.; for recent world GDP figures, we used the data from the CIA Factbook(https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html).
29. 100–200 million firms that exist: Most nations do not track the number of firms, so no global figure exists; the best we can do is to go with estimates based on total employment and employment size;see here for some estimation approaches: http://www.quora.com/Howmany-companies-exist-in-the-world.
30. employment by private-sector firms in high-growth countries: Jin Zeng, State-Led Privatization in China: The Politics of Economic Reform(London: Routledge, 2013), 28–29 and 52–53.
31. In the developed . . . (OECD) nations: See http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/gov_glance2015-en/03/01/index.html?contentType=&itemId=%2fcontent%2fchapter%2fgov_glance2015-22-en&mimeType=text%2fhtml&containerItemId=%2fcontent%2fserial%2f22214399&accessItemIds=.
32. implementing the “five-dollar day”: M. Todd Henderson, “Everything Old Is New Again:Lessons from Dodge v. Ford Motor Company,” John M. Olin Program in Law and Economics Working Paper No. 373, University of Chicago Law School, 2007, 2–13, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1070284.
33. shareholders demanded a larger dividend: The case was Dodge v. Ford Motor Company (1919).See ibid.
34. information should flow upward: Henry Ford, My Life and Work(Garden City, NY: Doubleday,Page, 1922).
35. firms will increase in size and combine: The Marxist Monopoly Capital, written in the 1960s, is perhaps one of the most cited critiques from the left, although the authors’argument against “monopoly capitalism” echoes Lenin’s earlier work; Paul A. Baran and Paul M. Sweezy, Monopoly Capital: An Essay on the Ameri- can Economic and Social Order(New York: Monthly Review Press, 1966). The economist and admirer of innovation Joseph Schum- peter was more nuanced in his critique: on the one hand, he identified large firms as surprising places of innovation; on the other hand, he worried that capitalism may become undone as monopolies cripple the human urge to innovate; see generally Thomas K. McCraw,Prophet of Innovation (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2007).
36. firm hasn’t yet replaced the market: For data on the growth of large firms, and especially the Fortune 500’s increasing share of US GDP over time (growing from 58 percent in 1994 to 73 percent in 2013), see Andrew Flowers, “Big Business Is Getting Bigger,” Five Thirty Eight,May 18, 2015, http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/big-business-is-getting-bigger.
37. buy and assemble parts made by others: John Hagel III and John Seely Brown, The Only Sustainable Edge: Why Business Strategy Depends on Productive Friction and Dynamic Specialization (Cambridge: Harvard Business School Press, 2005), 106–109.
38. the assemblers broke down the design: Dongsheng Ge and Takahiro Fujimoto, “Quasi Open Product Architecture and Technological Lock-In: An Exploratory Study on the Chinese Motorcycle Industry,” Annals of Business Administrative Science 3, no. 2 (April 2004), 15–24,http://doi.org/10.7880/abas.3.15.
39. dramatically expanding the number of market participants:K. Yamini Aparna and Vivek Gupta,“Modularization in the Chinese Motorcycles Industry,” IBS Center for Management Research,Hyderabad, India, Working Paper BSTR/165, 2005, http://www.thecasecentre.org/main/products/view?id=6627, 5–7.
40. Honda’s sales fell from 90 percent: Hagel and Brown, The Only Sustainable Edge, 108–109.
第3章 市场与货币
41. market volatility plummeted: Robert Jensen, “The Digital Provide: Information (Technology),Market Performance, and Welfare in the South Indian Fisheries Sector,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 122, no. 3 (August
2007), 879–924, https://academic.oup.com/qje/articleabstract/122/3/879/1879540/The-Digital-Provide-Information-Technology-Market.
42. “The market is essentially an ordering mechanism”: Friedrich August von Hayek, “Coping with Ignorance,” Ludwig von Mises Memorial Lecture, Hillsdale College, Hillsdale, MI, July 1978.
43. the market for used cars: George A. Akerlof, “The Market for
‘Lemons’: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 84, no. 3 (August 1970), 488–500, http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/84/3/488.short.
44. fewer peaches are offered for sale: Information asymmetries can also cause sellers to lose out when they undervalue their goods and services and a more informed buyer takes advantage of it. For example, a seller may offer an initial service at a loss to a buyer, imagining that the transaction will lead to repeat sales, not knowing that
45. the buyer never intends to come back — or would only do so for the same low price. The seller’s“loss leader” leads to nothing but a loss.
46. before copycats appear and free ride: In his famous book The Theory of Economic Development, Joseph Schumpeter argued that entrepreneurs, by definition, have discovered a category of exclusive information. They’re the first people to identify a new market,patent an invention, launch an efficient means of production, or introduce some other“new combination” — a way to coordinate human activity — before anyone else is aware of it. For Schumpeter and his acolytes, the resulting information asymmetry creates an economic incentive. Even though the market becomes less efficient, that is the price we pay for innovation. Hence, information imbalances aren’t necessarily bad—up to a point. The incentives created by information asymmetries are essential to innovation, but the reward for innovation cannot be permanent without harming the market. Asymmetries must be fleeting and temporal lest market predators exploit their information monopoly forever, creating a vacuum, a black hole in which information is trapped. Information vacuums force buyers to make suboptimal decisions. Thankfully, most information asymmetries are temporary.Competitors copy or emulate innovations and catch up, erasing the innovator’s information advantage.
47. a transaction takes place that shouldn’t: There are numerous such cases; see, e.g., the discovery of an original Declaration of Independence hidden in a picture bought at a flea market (Eleanor Blau, “Declaration of Independence Sells for $2.4 Million,” New York Times, June 14, 1991, http://www.nytimes.com/1991/06/14/arts/declaration-of-independence-sellsfor-2.4-million.html).
48. German pharmaceuticals company, Grünenthal: Grü nenthal was the first West German company to produce and sell penicillin after the occupying forces lifted their ban on the drug’s production in the country. See
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G.ünenthal_GmbH.
49. By mid-November, he informed Grünenthal: http://www.contergan.grunenthal.info/thalidomid/Home_/Fakten_und_Historie/342300049.jsp?naviLocale=en_EN.
50. the last British“thalidomide baby”: Nick McGrath,“My Thalido-mide Family: Every Time I Went Home I Was a Stranger,” Guardian,August 1, 2014, https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2014/aug/01/thalidomide-louise-medus-a-stranger-when-i-went-home.
51. juggle about half a dozen distinct pieces of information: The insight was originally made by psychologist George Miller (see George A. Miller, “The Magical Number Seven Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information,” Psychological Review 63,no. 2 (March
1956), 81–97, http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/1957-02914-00., and his article became one of the most cited in the academic literature. More recent studies have shown that the number of items isn’t fixed, but that a human’s working memory is a very limited resource that can be allocated in a variety of ways (see, e.g., Wei Ji Ma, Masud Husain, and Paul M.Bays, “Changing Concepts of Working Memory,” Nature Neuroscience 17 [2014], 347–356).
52. “Money is the root of most progress”: Niall Ferguson, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World (New York: Penguin Books, 2008), 4.
53. “prices can act to coordinate”:“A Conversation with Professor Friedrich A. Hayek” (1979),in Diego Pizano, ed., Conversations with Great Economists (New York: Jorge Pinto Books,2009), 5.
54. scholars of money point to numerous roles: See, e.g., Nigel Dodd, The Social Life of Money(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2014), 15–48.
55. so infatuated with markets and money: For a discussion of the limits of markets, see, e.g.,Margaret Jane Radin,“From Babyselling to Boilerplate: Reflections on the Limits of the Infrastructures of the Market,” Osgoode Hall Law Journal 54, no. 2, forthcoming; Osgoode Legal Studies Research Paper No. 28/2017 ( January 24, 2017); University of Michigan Law and Economics Research Paper No. 16-031; University of Michigan Public Law Research Paper No. 530, https://ssrn.com/abstract=2905141.
56. a better-than-even chance to know the truth: Cass R. Sunstein,Infotopia (New York: Oxford University Press, 2006), 25ff.
57. the probability of events related to Google projects: Other companies have also experimented with prediction markets, but Google’s appear to be the largest and longest experiments conducted in the corporate world. See Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz,“Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows:
58. Evidence from Google,” in Sanmay Das, Michael Ostrovsky, David Pennock, and Boleslaw K. Szymanski, eds., Auctions, Market Mech- anisms and Their Applications (Berlin: Springer,2009), 3, http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-03821-1_2.
59. first issue of the product-comparison magazine: “Consumer Group Formed: New Organization Plans to Give Data on Goods and Services,” New York Times, February 6, 1936, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=9F0CE0DF153FEE3BBC4E53DFB466838D629EDE.
60. Prices ending in nines: Even if policy makers prohibit prices ending in nine, recent research has shown that the market adjusts quickly to the restriction and shifts from prices ending in ninety-nine to prices ending in ninety, with the same deceiving effect on consumers; see Avichai Snir, Daniel Levy, and Haipeng Chen, “End of 9-Endings, Price Recall, and Price Perceptions,” Economics Letters, forthcoming (posted April 2, 2017), https://ssrn.com/abstract=2944919.
61. “under $1,000, which is code for $999”: Matthew Amster-Burton, “Price Anchoring, or Why a$499 iPad Seems Inexpensive,” Mint- Life, April
6, 2010, https://blog.mint.com/how-to/priceanchoring.
62. sellers often use price to deliberately obscure information: Authors’ conversation with Florian Bauer, December 19, 2016.
第4章 市场的复兴
63. “Nothing anyone does will seem that crazy”: Olivia Solon, “Oh the Humanity! Poker Computer Trounces Humans in Big Step for AI,” Guardian, January 30, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/30/libratus-poker-artificial-intelligence-professional-humanplayers-competition.
64. playing poker against Libratus: Quoted in Ben Popper, “This AI Will Battle Poker Pros for$200,000 in Prizes,” Verge, January 4, 2017, http://www.theverge.com/2017/1/4/14161080/ai-vs-humans-poker-cmu-libratus-no-limit-texas-hold-em.
65. Libratus remained cool: Michael Laakasuo, Jussi Palomäki, and Mikko Salmela, “Experienced Poker Players Are Emotionally Stable,” Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking 17, no.
66. (October 2014), 668–671, http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.1089/cyber.2014.0147.
67. “plugging its own holes every night”: Authors’ conversation with Jason Les, February 7, 2017.
68. “we would call him a machine”: Ibid.
69. Libratus racked up more than $1.7 million: Solon, “Oh the Humanity!”
70. the average individual wins weren’t spectacular: For a detailed description of Libratus’s winning approach, see Nikolai Yakovenko, “CMU’s Libratus Bluffs Its Way to Victory in #BrainsVsAI Poker Match,” Medium, February 1, 2017, https://medium.com/@Moscow25/cmus-libratus-bluffs-its-way-to-victory-in-brainsvsai-poker-match-99abd31b9cd.; see also Noam Brown and Tuomas Sandholm, “Safe and Nested Endgame Solving for Imperfect Information Games” (2016), Proceedings of the AAAI-17 Workshop on Computer Poker and Imperfect Information Games, http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~noamb/papers/17-AAAIRefinement.pdf.
71. get matched along multiple dimensions: “Ride-Sharing with BlaBlaCar’s New MariaDB Databases,” ComparetheCloud.ne., February 19, 2016, https://www.comparethecloud.net/articles/ride-sharing-with-blablacars-new-mariadb-database.; “About Us,” BlaBlaCar.com, accessed January 27, 2017, https://www.blablacar.com/about-us. 4 million people book rides: Arun Sundararajan, “Uber and Airbnb Could Reverse America’s Decades-Long Slide into Mass Cynicism,” Quartz, June 9, 2016, https://qz.com/700859/uber-and-airbnb-will-save-us-from-our-decades-long-slide-into-mass-cynicism.
72. Madi Solomon, an expert in such data: Madi Solomon, “Transformational Metadata and the Future of Content Management: An Interview with Madi Solomon of Pearson PLC,” Journal of Digital Asset Management 5, no. 1, 27–37, http://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/dam.2008.4.; quote from conversation with Viktor Mayer-Schönberger.
73. to automatically categorize product information: Chris Mellor, “Metadata Manipulation by Alation Seeks Needles in Data Haystack,” Register, April 1, 2015, http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/04/01/metadata_manipulation_by_alation.
See also Laura Melchior,“So stellt sich eBay im Bereich Daten und KIauf,”Internet World, January 23, 2017, http://www.internetworld.de/e-commerce/eBay/so-stellt-eBay-im-bereich-daten-ki-1188619.html.
74. these algorithms are the method by which: There is a diverse and growing literature on matching algorithms and processes; for a good discussion of the state of research and how far it has come, see Marzena Rostek and Nathan Yoder, “Matching with Multilateral Contracts” ( July 2, 2017), available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2997223.
75. carefully orchestrating the matching process: See, e.g., Yash Kanoria and Daniela Saban,“Facilitating the Search for Partners on Matching Platforms: Restricting Agents’ Actions” ( July 5, 2017), available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3004814.
76. clearing house often collects preference information: Alvin E. Roth and Elliott Peranson,“The Redesign of the Matching Market for American Physicians: Some Engineering Aspects of Economic Design,” American Economic Review 89, no. 4 (September 1999), 748–780.
77. two of the world’s leading experts in matching: Alvin E. Roth, Who Gets What — and Why:The New Economics of Matchmaking and Market Design (New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2015); see also David S. Evans and Richard Schmalensee, Matchmakers: The New Economics of Multisided Platforms (Cambridge: Harvard Business Review Press, 2016).
78. algorithm predicted which team would win: Tim Adams, “Job Hunting Is a Matter of Big Data,Not How You Perform at an Interview,” Observer, May 10, 2014, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/may/10/job-hunting-big-data-interview-algorithms-employee.; Sue Tabbitt, “Forget Myers-Briggs: Al-gorithms Can Better Predict Team Chemistry,” Guardian, May 27, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/small-business-network/2016/may/27/forgetmyers-briggs-algorithms-predict-team-chemistry.
79. Shepherd has replicated those results: Oscar Williams-Grut, “This Startup Can Predict If Your Business Will Fail with Questions Like ‘Do You Like Horror Films?’” Business Insider,December 16, 2015, http://uk.businessinsider.com/simple-questions-like-do-you-likehorror-films-can-predict-whether-a-startup-will-implode-2015-12.
80. representative of Big Data: Viktor Mayer-Schönberger and Kenneth N. Cukier, Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think (New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2013).
81. going beyond its initial training: For those who want to learn more about machine-learning methods (rather than Big Data more generally) in an easily accessible way, see Ethem Alpaydin, Machine Learning (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2016).
82. Tesla’s semiautonomous driving system: Dana Hull, “The Tesla Advantage: 1.3 Billion Miles of Data,” Bloomberg Technology, December
20, 2016, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-20/the-tesla-advantage-1-3-billion-miles-of-data.
83. “supermarkets of love”: Julia M. Klein,“When Dating Algorithms Can Watch You Blush,”Nautilus, April 14, 2016, http://nautil.us/issue/35/boundaries/when-dating-algorithms-canwatch-you-blush.
84. it used the wrong data: See, e.g., Paul W. Eastwick, Laura B. Luch-ies, Eli F. Finkel, and Lucy L. Hunt,“The Predictive Validity of Ideal Partner Preferences: A Review and Meta-Analysis,”Psychological Bulletin 140(20014), 623–665.
第5章 公司与控制
85. annual revenues of more than $100 billion: Jim Milliot, “Amazon Sales Top $100 Billion,”Publishers Weekly, January 28, 2016, http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/financial-reporting/article/69269-amazon-sales-top-100-billion.html.
86. “ordinary control freaks look like stoned hippies”: Steve Yegge’s Google Plus post is archived, with his apparent permission, at
https://plus.google.com/+RipRowan/posts/eVeouesvaVX.
87. demands placed on employees: Gregory Ferenstein,“Is Working at Amazon Terrible? According to Public Data, It’s the Same as Much of Silicon Valley,” Forbes, August 17, 2015,http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregoryferenstein/2015/08/17/is-working-at-amazon-terribleaccording-to-public-data-its-the-same-as-much-of-silicon-valley/#5b68ce4a5f89.
88. they have no autonomy: See, for example, these reviews: https://www.glassdoor.co.uk/Reviews/Employee-Review-Amazon-com-RVW10200125.htm.
89. “held accountable for a staggering array”: Jodi Kantor and David Streitfeld,“ Inside Amazon: Wrestling Big Ideas in a Bruising Workplace,” New York Times, August 15, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/16/technology/inside-amazon-wrestling-big-ideas-in-a-bruisingworkplace.html.
90. “you become an Amabot”: Ibid.
91. get a warning or get fired: Martha C. White, “Amazon’s Use of ‘Stack’ Ranking for Workers May Backfire, Experts Say,” NBC News, August 17, 2015, http://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/amazons-use-stack-ranking-workers-may-backfire-expertssay-n411306.
92. after the scientific management principles: “Digital Taylorism,” Economist, September 12, 2015, http://www.economist.com/news/business/21664190-modern-version-scientificmanagement-threatens-dehumanise-workplace-digital.
93. The firm can be many things: See, e.g., John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge, The Company: A Short History of a Revolutionary Idea (New York: Modern Library, 2003).
94. widespread adoption of Arabic numerals: Alfred W. Crosby, The Measure of Reality: Quantification and Western Society, 1250–1600(Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1997), 49.
95. preeminent bankers of fifteenth-century Europe: Jacob Soll, The Reckoning: Financial Accountability and the Rise and Fall of Nations (New York: Basic Books, 2014), 29–47.
96. merchants in Florence were required to maintain: Ibid., 35.
97. annual audit, conducted by Cosimo himself: Ibid., 37–38.
98. trying to embezzle monies: See Crosby, The Measure of Reality,204; Soll, The Reckoning,37–38.
99. Wedgwood transformed the information flows: Soll, The Reckon-ing, 117–131.
100. when bookkeepers get creative: “Creative” accounting has been associated with spectacular bankruptcies and scandals, ranging from those befalling National City Bank (now Citibank, see “Stock Exchange Practices: Report of the Committee on Banking
101. and Currency” [the Pecora Commission Report], 73rd Congress, 2nd Session, report no.1455, June 6, 1934, https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/investigations/pdf/Pecora_FinalReport.pd.; for further details, see
http://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/investigations/Pecora.ht and drug company McKesson & Robbins (which faked purchase orders and inflated inventory, see Michael Chatfield,“McKesson & Robbins Case,” in Michael Chatfield and Richard Vangermeersch, eds., History of Accounting: An International Encyclopedia [New York: Garland Publishing, 1996], 409–410) in the twentieth century to a string of high-profile cases at the turn of the millennium, including those of WorldCom (see Justin Kuepper, “Spotting Creative Accounting on the Balance Sheet,”Forbes, March 25, 2010, http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/25/balance-sheet-tricks-personalfinance-accounting.html), Chiquita Brands, Health South (see Michael J. Jones, Creative Accounting, Fraud and International Accounting Scandals(Chichester, England: John Wiley,2011), Enron (David Teather, “Billions Still Hidden in Enron Pyramid,” Guardian, January 30, 2002, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2002/jan/30/corporatefraud.enron.; Malcolm S. Salter, “Innovation Corrupted: The Rise and Fall of Enron (A),” Harvard Business School case study 905-048, December 2004 [revised October 2005], http://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=3181.), Lehman Brothers(see Rosalind Z. Wiggins and Andrew Metrick,“The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy C: Managing the Balance Sheet Through the Use of Repo 105,” Yale Program on Financial Stability case study 2014- 3C-V1, October 1, 2014, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=259307.; Donald J.Smith, “Hidden Debt: From Enron’s Commodity Prepays to Lehman’s Repo
105s,” Financial Analysts Journal 67, no. 5 [September/October 2011], https://www.cfainstitute.org/learning/products/publications/faj/Pages/faj.v67.n5.2.aspx), and electronics giant Toshiba, which in 2015 was caught posting profits early and pushing back the posting of losses in a sales- person’s version of a Ponzi scheme (see Sean Farrell, “Toshiba Boss Quits over£780 Million Accounting Scandal,” Guardian, July 21, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/21/toshiba-boss-quits-hisao-tanaka-accounting-scanda.).
102. collection of minute details about every task: Robert Kanigel, The One Best Way: Frederick Winslow Taylor and the Enigma of Efficiency(New York: Little Brown, 1997).
103. the first master’s degree in business administration: Soll, The Reckoning, 187.
104. the punch-card tabulator: Geoffrey D. Austrian, Herman Hollerith: Forgotten Giant of Information Processing (New York: Columbia University Press, 1982), 111 et seq. (chap. 9).
105. other than through Billy Durant himself: David A. Garvin and Lynne C. Levesque, “Executive Decision Making at General Motors,” Harvard Business School case study 9-305-026, February 14, 2006, 2, http://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=31870.
106. leaving the company paralyzed: William Pelfrey, Billy, Alfred, and General Motors: The Story of Two Unique Men, a Legendary Company, and a Remarkable Time in American History (New York: Amacom, 2006), 226.
107. he hired an outside firm to collect the data: Ibid., 260.
108. could make decisions with up-to-date information: John T. Landry, “Did Professional Management Cause the Fall of GM?” Harvard Business Review, June 9, 2009, https://hbr.org/2009/06/professional-management-and-th.
109. hiring a series of data “whiz kids”: Phil Rosenzweig, “Robert S. McNamara and the Evolution of Modern Management,” Harvard Business Review, December 2010, https://hbr.org/2010/12/robert-s-mcnamara-and-the-evolution-of-modern-management.
110. simplifying data to make it more digestible: Mayer-Schönberger and Cukier, Big Data, 164–165, 168.
111. tools to shape the flow of information: Ludwig Siegele and Joa-chim Zepelin, Matrix der Welt:SAP und der neue globale Kapitalis- mus(Frankfurt: Campus Verlag, 2009).
112. the “noise” they create in the organization: Daniel Kahneman, Andrew M. Rosenfield, Linnea Gandhi, and Tom Blaser, “Noise: How to Overcome the High, Hidden Cost of Inconsistent Decision Making,” Harvard Business Review (October 2016), https://hbr.org/2016/10/noise.
113. Checklists in aircraft: Brigette M. Hales and Peter J. Pronovost, “The Checklist — a Tool for Error Management and Performance,” Journal of Critical Care 21 (2006), 231–235.
114. checklist in a hospital intensive care unit: Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2009). Gawande was inspired to test the checklist approach after reading about a pilot study conducted by Peter Pronovost of the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.
115. balancing centralized and delegated decisions: Yingyi Qian, Gérard Roland, and Chenggang Xu, “Coordinating Changes in M-Form and U-Form Organizations,” paper presented to the No- bel Symposium, April 1998, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=163108.
“decentralization with coordinated control”: Alfred P. Sloan Jr., My Years with General Motors (New York: Doubleday, 1990), 129, quoted in Garvin and Levesque, “Executive Decision Making at General Motors.”
116. a range of fundamental cognitive limitations: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,” Science 185, no. 4157 (September 27, 1974),1124–1131. In 2002, Kahneman earned the Nobel Prize in Economics for the Tversky-Kahneman research; Tversky died in 1996 and therefore did not share in the honor. See also Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011); on how Kahneman and Tversky achieved their breakthrough insights, see Michael Lewis, The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds (New York: W. W. Norton, 2016).
117. confirmation bias: Yoram Bar-Tal and Maria Jarymowicz, “The Effect of Gender on Cognitive Structuring: Who Are More Biased, Men or Women?” Psychology 1, no. 2 ( January 2010),80–87, http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=2096.
118. fundamental attribution error: Incheol Choi and Richard E. Nisbett, “Situational Salience and Cultural Differences in the Correspondence Bias and Actor-Observer Bias,” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 24, no. 9 (September 1998), 949–960, http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167298249003; Minas N. Kastanakis and Benjamin G. Voyer,“The Effect of Culture on Perception and Cognition: A Conceptual Framework,” Journal of Business Research 67, no.4 (April 2014), 425–433, http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/50048/1/lse.ac.uk_storage_LIBRARY_Secondary_libfile_shared_repository_Content_Voyer,%20B_Effect%20culture%20perception_Voyer_Effect%20culture%20perception_2014.pdf.
119. limits of our ability to make optimal decisions: Herbert A. Simon, Models of Bounded Rationality (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1982).
120. “dangers of possessing too much information”: Gerd Gigerenzer, Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious (New York: Viking, 2007), 38.
121. informational ignorance works just as well: Cultivating “a beneficial degree of ignorance” is one of the self-help leitmotifs woven through Gerd Gigerenzer’s international best seller Gut Feelings. The wisdom of gut instincts and intuition was also featured in Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking (New York: Little, Brown, 2005) and, more recently, in economists Donald Sull and Kathleen Eisenhardt’s Simple Rules: How to Thrive in a Complex World (New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2015).
122. they value their gut feelings: Economist Intelligence Unit, “Decisive Action: How Businesses Make Decisions and How They Could Do It Better” (London: Applied Predictive Technologies,n.d.), 7, http://www.datascienceassn.org/sites/default/files/Decisive%20Action%20-%20How%20Businesses%20Make%20Decisions%20and%20How%20They%20Could%20do%20it%20Better.pdf.
123. every second-best solution to a problem: See generally David G. Myers, Intuition — Its Powers and Its Perils (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002).
第6章 公司的未来
124. company announced it would use Watson: Justin McCurry, “Japanese Company Replaces Office Workers with Artificial Intelligence,” Guardian, January 5, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/05/japanese-company-replaces-office-workersartificial-intelligence-ai-fukoku-mutual-life-insurance; also see Fukoku Mutual’s press release: https://translate.google.com/translate?depth=1&hl=en&prev=search&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=ja&sp=nmt4&u=http://www.fukoku-life.co.jp/about/news/download/20161226.pdf.
125. 20 percent of Daimler’s global workforce: “Daimler baut Konzern fü rdie Digitalisierung”Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung,September 7, 2016, https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/daimlerbaut-konzern-fuer-die-digitalisierung-um-14424858.html.
126. “supplement the hierarchical-management pyramid”: “Daimler Chief Plots Cultural Revolution,” Handelsblatt Global, July 25, 2016, https://global.handelsblatt.com/companiesmarkets/daimlerchief-plots-cultural-revolution-574783.
127. required considerable institutional support: See, e.g., Douglas W. Allen, The Institutional Revolution—Measurement and the Economic Emergence of the Modern World (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2012).
128. bump artificial intelligence into the executive ranks: See also Vegard Kolbjørnsrud, Richard Amico, and Robert J. Thomas,“How Artificial Intelligence Will Redefine Management,”Harvard Business Review, November 2, 2016, https://hbr.org/2016/11/how-artificialintelligence-will-redefine-management.
129. automate three-fourths of all management decisions: Olivia Solon, “World’s Largest Hedge Fund to Replace Managers with Artificial Intelligence,” Guardian, December 22, 2016,https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/22/bridgewater-associates-ai-artificialintelligence-management.
130. making decisions less biased: See Maarten Goos and Alan Manning, “Lousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain,” Review of Economics and Statistics 89(February 2007), 118–133.
131. learning decision-assistance system . . . construction company: This case illustration is based on Emmanuel Marot, “Robot CEO: Your Next Boss Could Run on Code,” Venture Beat, March 20, 2016, https://venturebeat.com/2016/03/20/robot-ceo-your-next-bosscould-run-on-code.
132. T-shaped skillset: Tom Kelley, The Ten Faces of Innovation (New York: Doubleday, 2005),75–78; on what skills are needed see also Richard Susskind and Daniel Susskind, The Future of Professions (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015).
133. Spotify, a recent digital darling: The examination of Spotify is based on Thomas Ramge’s visit to Spotify’s HQ in Stockholm on January 20–21, 2015; his analysis was published as Thomas Ramge, “Nicht fragen.
Machen,” brand eins 033/15, https://www.brandeins.de/archiv/2015/fuehrung/spotify-nicht-fragen-machen.; for an English-language description of Spotify’s unique
134. organizational setup, see Michael Mankins and Eric Garton, “How Spotify Balances Employee Autonomy and Accountability,” Harvard Business Review, February 9,2017,https://hbr.org/2017/02/how-spotify-balances-employee-autonomy-and-accountability.
135. Ek has been described as: Brendan Greeley, “Daniel Ek’s Spotify: Music’s Last Best Hope,” BloombergBusinessweek, July 14, 2011, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-07-13/daniel-ek-s-spotify-music-s-last-best-hope.
136. tool to elicit frequent feedback from others: See Mankins and Garton, “How Spotify Balances Employee Autonomy and Accountability.”
137. John Deere’s transition: Darrell K. Rigby, Jeff Sutherland, and Hirotaka Takeuchi, “Embracing Agile,” Harvard Business Review, May 2016, https://hbr.org/2016/05/embracing-agile.
138. General Electric and Siemens are decentralizing: “The Multinational Company Is in Trouble,”Economist, January 28, 2017, http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21715660-globalfirms-are-surprisingly-vulnerable-attack-multinational-company-trouble.
139. media giant Thomson Reuters aims to: Mary Johnson, “How to Kickstart Innovation at a Multinational Corporation,” Thomson Reuters blog, April 7, 2016, https://blogs.thomsonreuters.com/answerson/kickstart-innovation-multinational-corporation.
140. recruit the talent their firms required: Eben Harrell, “The Solution to the Skills Gap Could Already Be Inside Your Company,” Harvard Business Review, September 27, 2016, https://hbr.org/2016/09/the-solution-to-the-skills-gap-could-already-be-inside-your-company.
141. fluidity of human labor inside an organization: Lowell L. Bryan, Claudia I. Joyce, and Leigh M.Weiss, “Making a Market in Talent,” McKinsey Quarterly, May 2006, http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/making-a-market-in-talent.
142. Procter & Gamble has even opened its internal platform: John Horton, William R. Kerr, and Christopher Stanton,“Digital Labor Markets and Global Talent Flows,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 23398 (May 2017), http://www.nber.org/papers/w23398.
第7章 资本的衰退
143. “immeasurable tropical energy to create the perfect storm”: “NOAA Meteorologist Bob Case, the Man Who Named the Perfect Storm,” NOAA News, June 16, 2000, http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s444.htm.
144. more than $200 million in damages: National Climatic Data Center,“‘Perfect Storm’ Damage Summary,” October 1991, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/satellite/satelliteseye/cyclones/pfctstorm91/pfctstdam.html.
145. more than $8 trillion was lost: Roger C. Altman, “The Great Crash, 2008: A Geopolitical Setback for the West,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2009, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2009-01-01/great-crash-2008.
146. competition that has shrunk banks’ margins: Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, “Net Interest Margin for All U.S. Banks,” updated February 14, 2017, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USNIM.
147. situation is at least as bad in Europe: Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis,“Bank’s Net Interest Margin for Euro Area,”updated August 17, 2016, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDEI01EZA156NWDB.
148. one in five banks in Germany will earn: Andreas Dombret, Yalin Gündüz, and Jörg Rocholl,“Will German Banks Earn Their Cost of Capital?” (2017), Bundesbank Discussion Paper No.01/2017, https://ssrn.com/abstract=2910286.
149. never recovered from the financial crisis of 2007: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Financial Activities: Commercial Banking(CEU5552211001), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CEU555221100., April 2, 2017.
150. bank branches employed 212,000 fewer: Valentina Romei, “Why Europe’s Banks Will Never Be the Same Again,” Financial Times, August 8, 2016, http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2016/08/08/why-europes-banks-will-never-be-the-same-again.
151. private banks in Switzerland vanished: Oliver Suess and Jan-Henrik Foerster,“Commerzbank Plans Job Cuts in Biggest Overhaul Since Bailout,” Bloomberg LP, September 29, 2016,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-29/commerzbank-shares-climb-onreport-of-10-000-job-cuts-pending.
152. Commerzbank will cut one in five: Matthew Allen, “One in Ten Swiss Private Banks Disappeared in 2015,” SwissInfo, August 25, 2016, http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/splitfortunes_one-in-10-swiss-private-banks-disappeared-in-2015/42398770.
153. UniCredit bank will close 26 percent: Martin Arnold, “UniCredit Boss Wastes No Time in Tackling the Bank’s Problems,” Financial Times, December 13, 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/0ed769fc-c0a6-11e6-9bca-2b93a6856354.
154. Second Payment Service Directive: Directive (EU) 2015/2366 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 25 November 2015 on payment services in the internal market, OJ L 337, 23.12.2015, 35–127, http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32015L236.; see also “New European Rules Will Open Retail Banking,”Economist, March 23, 2017, http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21719476-dangersprivacy-and-security-are-outweighed-benefits-new-european-rules-will-open.
155. wide variety of signals . . . can be honest: Alex Pentland, Honest Signals (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2008).
156. raised money simply because it could: Leslie Hook, “Venture Capital Funding in Start-Ups Surges to $100bn for Quarter,” Financial Times, October 14, 2015, https://www.ft.com/content/e95f5c6e-7238-11e5-bdb1-e6e4767162cc.
the number of listed companies: Maureen Farrell,“America’s Roster of Public Companies Is Shrinking Before Our Eyes,” Wall Street Journal, January 6, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-roster-of-public-companies-is-shrinking-before-oureyes-1483545879.
157. No digital currency is capable of: For more on blockchain, see Don Tapscott and Alex Tapscott, The Blockchain Revolution: How the Technology Behind Bitcoin Is Changing Money, Business, and the World(New York: Portfolio/Penguin Books, 2016).
158. fintechs attracted investments exceeding $19 billion: Andrew Meola,“The Fintech Report 2016: Financial Industry Trends and Investment,” Business Insider, December 14, 2016, http://www.businessinsider.de/the-fintech-report-2016-financial-industry-trends-andinvestment-2016-12?r=US&IR=T; KPMG,“The Pulse of Fintech: Global Analysis of Fintech Venture Funding,” November 13, 2016, https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2016/11/the-pulse-of-fintech-q3-report.pdf.
159. a fintech bubble: Alessandro Hatami, “After the Fintech Bubble — the Winners and Losers,”BankNXT, February 15, 2016, http://banknxt.com/55760/fintech-bubble-winners-andlosers.
160. saving its customers . . . an estimated $1.45 billion: https://www.sofi.com.
161. bringing data-rich consumer credit scoring to China: Jon Russell, “Baidu Invests in Zest Finance to Develop Search-Powered Credit Scoring for China,” TechCrunch, July 17, 2016, https://techcrunch.com/2016/07/17/baidu-invests-in-zestfinance-to-developsearch-powered-credit-scoring-for-china.
162. total market for peer-to-peer lending in China: “In Fintech China Shows the Way,”Economist, February 25, 2017.
163. A counter example suggests: The following history of investment banking is based on the perceptive Alan D. Morrison and William J. Wilhelm, Jr. Investment Banking: Institutions, Politics, and Law (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007); an article version is Alan Morrison and William Wilhelm, “Investment Banking: Past, Present, and Future,” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 19 (2007), 8–20.
164. lacks the insight, based on information: Albert Wenger, World After Capital, https://worldaftercapital.gitbooks.io/worldaftercapital/content/part-two/Capital.html.
第8章 反馈效应
165. built-in risk of extreme failure: See the official report of the accident investigation BEA, Final Report — On the Accident on 1st June 2009 to the Airbus A330-203 Registered F-GZCP Operated by Air France Flight AF 447 Rio de Janeiro–Paris, July 2012, https://www.bea.aero/docspa/2009/f-cp090601.en/pdf/f-cp090601.en.pd.; see also William Langewiesche,“The Human Factor,” Van- ity Fair, September 17, 2014, http://www.vanityfair.com/news/business/2014/10/air-france-flight-447-cras.; Tim Harford,“Crash: How Computers Are Setting Us Up for Disaster,” Guardian, October 11, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/11/crash-how-computers-are-setting-us-up-disaster.
166. the general theory of feedback: See George Dyson, Turing’s Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe (New York: Pantheon Books, 2012), 109–114.
167. in choosing the term“cybernetics”: On the ambivalence of Norbert Wiener’s work, see Flo Conway and Jim Siegelman, Dark Hero of the Information Age — In Search of Norbert Wiener, the Father of Cybernetics(New York: Basic Books, 2005).
168. “their control over the rest of the human race”: Norbert Wiener, The Human Use of Human Beings (Boston: Da Capo Press, 1988), 247–250.
169. Champagne fairs of the Middle Ages: Ray Fisman and Tim Sullivan, The Inner Lives of Markets: How People Shape Them and They Shape Us (New York: PublicAffairs, 2016).
170. search requests . . . go to Google:“Marktanteile der Suchmaschinen weltweit nach mobiler und stationärer Nutzung im März 2017,” https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/222849/umfrage/marktanteile-der-suchmaschinen-weltweit.
171. Amazon’s share of . . . online retail revenues: “Amazon Accounts for 43 Percent of US Online Retail Sales,” Business Insider, February 2, 2017, http://www.businessinsider.de/amazonaccounts-for-43-of-us-online-retail-sales-2017-2?r=US&IR=T.
172. Facebook’s almost 2 billion users: “Leading Countries Based on Number of Facebook Users as of April 2016 (in Millions),” https://www.statista.com/statistics/268136/top-15-countriesbased-on-number-of-facebook-users.
173. GoDaddy is the largest domain-name registrar: Andrew Alle-mann, “GoDaddy Marches Toward $1 Billion,” DomainNameWire, August 17, 2010, http://domainnamewire.com/2010/08/17/go-daddy-marches-toward-1-billion.
174. WordPress dominates . . . Netflix rules: According to W3Techs, WordPress is used by almost 60 percent of all websites with a known content management system and by almost 30 percent of all websites;
https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/cm-wordpress/all/al.; in early 2017, Netflix’s share of the streaming market in the United States was about 75 percent; see Sara Perez, “Netflix Reaches 75 percent of US Streaming Service Viewers, but YouTube Is Catching Up,” TechCrunch, April 20, 2017,https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/10/netflix-reaches-75-of-u-s-streaming-service-viewers-but-youtube-is-catching-up.
175. service itself did not improve: See also Claude S. Fischer, America Calling: A Social History of the Telephone to 1940 (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1994).
176. this network effect: Carl Shapiro and Hal R. Varian, Information Rules: A Strategic Guide to the Network Economy (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 1999), 173 et seq.
177. business dynamism, driven by innovative disruptors: Ryan A. Decker, John Haltiwanger,Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda, “Declining Dynamism, Allocative Efficiency, and the Productivity Slowdown,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-019, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2017.019.
178. antitrust lawsuit against Microsoft: See, e.g., Andrew I. Gavil and Harry Fist, The Microsoft Antitrust Case (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2014).
179. antitrust case against Google in Europe: See, e.g., Benjamin Edelmann, “Does Google Leverage Market Power Through Tying and Bundling?” Journal of Competition Law and Economics 11, no. 2 (2015), 365–400, https://doi.org/10.1093/joclec/nhv016.
180. go beyond regulating anti-competitive behavior: Ariel Ezrachi and Maurice E. Stucke, Virtual Competition: The Promise and Perils of the Algorithm-Driven Economy (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2016); see also Maurice Stucke and Allen Grunes, Big Data and Competition Policy(New York: Oxford University Press, 2016).
181. “open up” their algorithms: For a critical view of algorithmic transparency, see Joshua A.Kroll et al., “Accountable Algorithms,” University of Pennsylvania Law Review 165 (2017),633–705, https://www.pennlawreview.com/print/165-U-Pa-L-Rev-633.pdf.
182. economists . . . offer an intriguing idea: Jens Prüfer and Christoph Schottmüller,“Competing with Big Data,” February 16, 2017, TILEC Discussion Paper 2017-006, available at
http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2918726; this extends an idea originally suggested in Cédric Argenton and Jens Prüfer, “Search Engine Competition with Network Externalities,” Journal of Competition Law and Economics 8(2012), 73–105, https://pure.uvt.nl/portal/files/1373523/search_engines.pdf.
183. Homogeneity of the systems we employ: We see similar prob- lems emerge with crops and fruits lacking genetic variety, such as the conventional banana (the “Cavendish”) that is threatened by its vulnerability to a dangerous fungus; see, e.g., “A Future with No Bananas?”New Scientist, May 13, 2006, https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn9152-a-future-withno-bananas.
184. Critics of fair-value accounting: For a discussion and critical analysis about the pros and cons of the argument, see Christian Laux and Christian Leuz, “Did Fair-Value Accounting Contribute to the Financial Crisis?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 24 (2010), 93–118.
185. shift in focus from collection to use: See, e.g., Fred H. Cate and Viktor MayerSchönberger,“Notice and Consent in a World of Big Data,” International Data Privacy Law 3(2013), 67–73; Kirsten
186. E. Martin, “Transaction Costs, Privacy, and Trust: The Laudable Goals and Ultimate Failure of Notice and Choice to Respect Privacy Online,” First Monday 18, no. 12-2 (2013), http://firstmonday.org/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/4838/380.; Alessandro Man- telero, “The Future of Consumer Data Protection in the E.U. Rethinking the ‘Notice and Consent’Paradigm in the New Era of Predictive Analytics,” Computer Law and Security Review 30(2014), 643; Joel R. Reidenberg et al.,“Privacy Harms and the Effectiveness of the Notice and Choice Framework,” I/S 11 (2015), 485–524, http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/students/groups/is/files/2016/02/10-Reidenberg-Russell-Callen-Qasir-and-Norton.pdf.
187. computer system that would assist the Chilean government: The evolution of Cybersyn and its implications are eloquently captured in Eden Medina, Cybernetics Revolutionaries: Technology and Politics in Allende’s Chile (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2011); see also Evgeny Morozov, “The Planning Machine,” New Yorker, October 13, 2014, http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/10/13/planning-machine. The development of Cybersyn also underlies the plot of a work of fiction: see Sascha Reh, Gegen die Zeit (Frankfurt, Ger- many:Schöffling, 2015).
188. Great Famine of 1932–1933: See Anne Applebaum, Red Famine: Stalin’s War on Ukraine(New York: Doubleday, 2017).
189. to coax us to transact appropriately: See, e.g., Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness (New Haven: Yale University Press,2008).
第9章 工作权益与分配正义
190. “The drive was as mundane”: Alex Davies, “Uber’s Self-Driving Truck Makes Its First Delivery: 50,000 Beers,” Wired, October 25, 2016, https://www.wired.com/2016/10/ubersself-driving-truck-makes-first-delivery-50000-beers.
191. the system won’t take away their jobs: Eric Newcomer and Alex Webb, “Uber Self-Driving Truck Packed with Budweiser Makes First Delivery in Colorado,” Bloomberg, October 25,2016, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/uber-self-driving-truckpacked-with-budweiser-makes-first-delivery-in-colorado.
192. median annual income of more than $40,000: “Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers,”Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook, https://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/heavy-and-tractor-trailer-truck-drivers.htm.
193. middle-income desk jobs that . . . will disappear: Michael Chui, James Manyika, and Mehdi Miremadi, “Where Machines Could Replace Humans — and Where They Can’t (Yet),”Mc- Kinsey Quarterly ( July 2016), http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digitalmckinsey/our-insights/where-machines-could-replace-humans-and-where-they-cantyet.
194. labor force has declined from its peak: The participation rate in
2017 was around 63 percent,down from over 67 percent in 2000, and below the level it had been in more than three decades; see U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Participation Rates, data sets and graphs available at https://data.bls.gov.
195. forecast depressing employment figures: Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies(New York: W. W. Norton, 2016); Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? (Oxford, UK: Oxford Martin School, September 17, 2013), http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf.
196. advent of a “second machine age”: Brynjolfsson and McAfee, The Second Machine Age.
197. “labor share” has declined considerably: Matthias Kehrig and Nicolas Vincent, “Growing Productivity Without Growing Wages: The Micro-Level Anatomy of the Aggregate Labor Share Decline,” CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6454, May 3, 2017, https://ssrn.com/abstract=2977787.
198. In most advanced economies, labor share: International Labor Organization and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, “The Labour Share in G20 Economies”(February 2015), 11, https://www.oecd.org/g20/topics/employment-and-social-policy/The-Labour-Share-in-G20-Economies.pd.; OECD Employment Outlook 2012, 115, http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/employment/oecd-employment-outlook-2012_empl_outlook2012-en.
199. fallen in the large economies of India and China: Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman,“The Global Decline of the Labor Share,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, no. 1 (January 2013), 61–103, n1.
200. labor share globally has been dropping: Ibid, 1.
201. something that affects them all: OECD Employment Outlook 2012,119.
202. displaces blue-collar and low- and middle-income: Ibid., 115–116.
203. temporary gigs with limited or no benefits: Ian Hathaway and Mark Muro, “Tracking the Gig Economy: New Numbers,” Brookings Institution, October 13, 2016, https://www.brookings.edu/research/tracking-the-gig-economy-new-number.; the gig economy is not limited to advanced economies; see, e.g., Mark Graham, Isis Hjorth, and Vili Lehdonvirta, “Digital Labour and Development: Impacts of Global Digital Labour Platforms and the Gig Economy on Worker Livelihoods,” Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, March 16,2017, http://journals.sagepub.com/eprint/3FMTvCNPJ4SkhW9tgpWP/full.
204. shrinking role of labor: Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century (Cambridge, MA:Belknap Press, 2014).
205. not necessarily to tax the economy more: See Ryan Abbott and Bret N. Bogenschneider,“Should Robots Pay Taxes? Tax Policy in the Age of Automation,” forthcoming in Harvard Law and Policy Review (March 13, 2017), https://ssrn.com/abstract=2932483.
206. Bill Gates, announced his support: Kevin J. Delaney, “The Robot That Takes Your Job Should Pay Taxes, Says Bill Gates,”Quartz, February 17, 2017, https://qz.com/911968/bill-gates-the-robot-that-takes-your-job-should-pay-taxes.
207. it might stifle innovation: Georgina Prodhan, “European Parliament Calls for Robot Law,Rejects Robot Tax,” Reuters, February 16, 2017, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europerobots-lawmaking-idUSKBN15V2KM.
208. enthusiasm for UBI: For an excellent monograph on universal basic income, see Philippe van Parijs and Yannick Vanderborght, Basic Income: A Radical Proposal for a Free Society and a Sane Economy (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2017).
209. Paine proposed a basic income: Thomas Paine, Agrarian Justice(1797), https://www.ssa.gov/history/tpaine3.htm.. 190 Friedman suggested a negative income tax: Milton Friedman,Capitalism and Freedom(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962).
210. Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern: Van Parijs and Vanderborght, Basic Income, 90–93. Nixon then proposed his own family-assistance program: Peter Passell and Leonard Ross.“Daniel Moynihan and President-Elect Nixon: How Charity Didn’t Begin at Home,” New York Times, January 14, 1973, http://www.nytimes.com/books/98/10/04/specials/moynihanincome.html.
211. empower people to choose for themselves: Nathan Schneider, “Why the Tech Elite Is Getting Behind Universal Basic Income,” Vice, January 6, 2015, https://www.vice.com/en_au/article/something-for-everyone-0000546-v22n1.
212. effects of a UBI on human motivation: Jon Henley, “Finland Trials Basic Income for Unemployed,” Guardian, January 3, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/03/finland-trials-basic-income-for-unemployed.
213. Switzerland held a national referendum: Ibid.
214. Canada experimented with a version: Van Parijs and Vander-borght, Basic Income, 141–143; see also Zi-Ann Lum,“A Canadian City Once Eliminated Poverty and Nearly Everyone Forgot About It,” Huffington Post Canada, December 23, 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/12/23/mincome-in-dauphin-manitoba_n_6335682.html.
215. subsidize the middle class and the affluent: This is in contrast to proposals such as Milton Friedman’s negative income tax; Friedman, Capitalism and Freedom.
216. justify spending such a huge sum: For more on how to calculate the amount needed tofundaUBIand the income tax rate that would benecessary, see “Basically Unaffordable,” Economist, May 23, 2015, http://www.economist.com/news/finance-andeconomics/21651897-replacing-welfare-payments-basic-income-all-alluring.
217. capital share evaporates: Matthew Rognlie,“Deciphering the Fall and Rise in the Net Capital Share: Accumulation or Scarcity?” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2015),https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2015a_rognlie.pdf.
218. conventional calculations of capital share assume: Simcha Barkai, “Declining Labor and Capital Shares,” http://home.uchicago.edu/~barkai/doc/BarkaiDecliningLaborCapital.pdf.
219. data processing requires less capital: Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman, “The Global Decline of the Labor Share,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 19136 ( June 2013), http://ww.nber.org/papers/w19136.pdf.
220. labor benefits more from technology: Robert Z. Lawrence, “Recent Declines in Labor’s Share in US Income: A Preliminary Neoclassical Account,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 21296 (June 2015), http://www.nber.org/papers/w21296.
221. innovative activity and business dynamism: Ryan A. Decker et al., “Declining Dynamism,Allocative Efficiency, and the Productivity Slowdown,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-019(Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,2017), https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2017.019.
222. further light on the underlying dynamic: David Autor et al., “The Fall of Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 23396 (May 2017), http://www.nber.org/papers/w2339.; David Autor et al., “Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 23108 (January 2017), http:// www.nber.org/papers/w23108.
223. they can achieve very high revenues: This also applies to superstars among manufacturing plants, see Kehrig and Vincent, “Growing Productivity Without Growing Wages.”
224. five . . . are obvious superstars: Dan Strumpf,“The Only Six Stocks That Matter,” Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2015, https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-only-six-stocks-thatmatter-1437942926.
225. textbook example of a bad idea: The exceptions would be social welfare programs that are“self-funded” through direct contributions from workers; in those cases, if policy makers reject the idea that corporate tax receipts should fund social welfare, a robo tax may be an option to make up for the shortfall caused by a decreasing labor share.
226. over $200 billion in lost tax revenues: Fabie Candau and Jacques Le Cacheux,“Corporate Income Tax as a Genuine Own Resource,” March 23, 2017, https://ssrn.com/abstract=2939938.
personal income would be taxed only: See, e.g., Alan D. Viard and Robert Carroll,Progressive Consumption Taxation: The X-Tax Revisited(Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute Press, 2012), but the idea is much older—see, e.g., William D. Andrews, “A Consumption-Type or Cash Flow Personal Income Tax,” 87 Harvard Law Review 1113(1974).
227. support across the political spectrum: In addition to politicians such as Democratic Senator Ben Cardin (https://www.cardin.senate.gov/PC) and think tanks such as the conservative American Enterprise Institute (AEI), advocates include hightech figures such as Bill Gates(Tim Worstall, “Bill Gates Points to the Best Tax System, the Progressive Consumption Tax,”Forbes, March 18, 2014, https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2014/03/18/bill-gatespoints-to-the-best-tax-system-the-progressive-consumption-tax).
228. to spot changes in skill demand: We are not alone suggesting this; see, e.g., World Economic Forum, The Future of Jobs Report ( January 2016), 24 and 29, http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs.pdf.
229. “look to build a monopoly”: Peter Thiel, “Competition Is for Losers,” Wall Street Journal,September 12, 2014, https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-thiel-competition-is-forlosers-1410535536.
230. choose the job they like: See also Van Parijs and Vanderborght,Basic Income, 165–169.
第10章 人类的选择
232. become “a CEO of a retail company”: Ryan Mac, “Stitch Fix: The$250 Million Startup Playing Fashionista Moneyball,” Forbes, June 1, 2016, //www.forbes.com/sites/ryanmac/2016/06/01/fashionista-moneyball-stitch-fix-katrina-lake/#54e798e859a2.
233. “constantly maxing out Lake’s $6,000-limit credit card”: Ibid.
234. a potential start-up “unicorn”: “Fifty Companies That May Be the Next Start-Up Unicorns,”New York Times, August 23, 2015, https://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/08/23/here-are-thecompanies-that-may-be-the-next-50-start-up-unicorns/?_r=0.
235. enables Stitch Fix to be a matchmaker: http://algorithms-tour.stitchfix.com.
236. a social debt that most customers choose to repay: Much like the personal debt that transaction partners have been found to want to repay when they receive positive feedback;see, e.g., Gary Bolton, Ben Greiner, and Alex Ockenfels,“Engineering Trust—Reciprocity in the Production of Reputation Information,” Management Science 59, no. 2 (2013), 265–285.
237. one in four trucks drive empty: Robert Matthams,“Despite High Fuel Prices, Many Trucks Run Empty,”Christian Science Monitor, February 25, 2012, http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2012/0225/Despite-high-fuel-prices-many-trucks-run-empty.
238. one of the pioneer venture capitalists: “Eugene Kleiner,” Kleiner, Perkins,Caufield,and Byers,http://www.kPCb.com/partner/eugene-kleiner.
239. fear is that as we delegate decisions to machines: See, e.g., Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence:Paths, Dangers, Strategies (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014).
240. The end of scarcity: Ibid.
241. “A world of increasing abundance”: Ibid.
242. “Cartier for everyone”: Aaron Bastani,“Britain Doesn’t Need More Austerity, It Needs Luxury Communism,” Vice, June 12, 2015, https://www.vice.com/en_au/article/luxurycommunism-933.
243. “cybernetic meadow, tended to by machines”: Brian Merchant, “Fully Automated Luxury Communism,” Guardian, March 18, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/sustainablebusiness/2015/mar/18/fully-automated-luxury-communism-robots-employment.
244. open the window to new insights: Avi Loeb, “Good Data Are Not Enough,” Nature, November 2, 2016, http://www.nature.com/news/good-data-are-not-enough-1.20906.
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